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SpaceX is moving full-speed ahead with the Big Falcon Rocket (BFR) project with the aim of sending a Japanese style tycoon on a moon mission in 2023. That's not the just thing CEO Elon Musk has planned for the BFR. In his characteristically off-handed way, Musk noted on Twitter that he thinks SpaceX can have a Mars base built by 2028. NASA meanwhile questions whether information technology'south feasible to fifty-fifty launch a manned Mars mission in the 2030s.

The Twitter commutation doesn't contain much information. Several days ago, Musk tweeted a new rendering of a Mars base with BFR rockets landed nearby. Someone asked when such a thing was likely to happen, and Musk said 2028.

This timeline loosely matches what SpaceX has said nigh its BFR plans in the by. The first test flights should take place in the coming years so the company can confirm the BFR works before stuffing people into information technology. In by speeches, Musk has said SpaceX plans to send a pair of unmanned BFR spacecraft to Mars in 2022, followed by two more in 2024. That twelvemonth could as well see two crewed BFR rockets caput to the red planet. Each of the unmanned rockets could carry up to 100 tons of supplies to brainstorm edifice the colony. These half dozen rockets would form the backbone of an early base that would aggrandize as more people motility there.

SpaceX has only started building the get-go BFRs, which volition be reusable spacecraft. A lot could still go wrong, and fifty-fifty small delays can cause significant changes in the timeline. It's only efficient to wing to Mars at sure times as the two planets' orbits bring them in close proximity. Missing a deadline by a few weeks could push back a mission timeline by months or years.

Getting a human city built on Mars inside a decade is ambitious — we're talking 1960s moon landing ambitious here. Not simply does SpaceX need to develop and exam a new rocket to make the journey, information technology needs to figure out how people can survive on Mars. Radiation poses a serious risk for long-term health on Mars, for instance. Even cardinal issues are upwards in the air, like whether it's possible to extract significant water from Mars. SpaceX has suggested in the by that colonists would demand to extract a ton of ice each day to become self-sufficient and ensure the BFRs could be refueled for a return trip. Living on Mars could be hard if a human settlement relies entirely on water hauled over from Earth.

We'll accept a better idea how likely this timeline is equally the BFR takes shape. If the manned moon mission ends up delayed, information technology's unlikely a Mars base of operations is happening within a decade.

At present read: SpaceX Says Manned Dragon Flight On Schedule for Apr 2022, SpaceX Launches Previously Flown Falcon 9 and Dragon Sheathing, and SpaceX'due south BFR Vehicle Is Already Taking Shape